Every three months, participants in the Metaculus forecasting cup try to predict the future for a prize pot of about $5,000. Metaculus, a forecasting platform, poses questions of geopolitical ...

A fox, a hedgehog and an LLM – it sounds like the beginning of a joke, but this is in fact the introduction to a topic that is consuming the attention of Philip Tetlock, psychology professor, ...

Your friend says to you: "I bet you $100 that in 2016 a Democrat will be elected as president of the USA." Would you take such a wager? Why or why not? You might think gambling is wrong. You might ...

Predicting what matters in fashion was once an elite sport, the province of those who attend those big runway shows in New York, Milan, London, and – right now – Paris, like the editors of influential ...

Sometimes even billionaires and tech legends misjudge the future. This video explores six CEOs who confidently predicted ...